Rule #19: Assume It’s an Assumption

I’m wrong, a lot. 

I don’t know why I’m wrong so much, I like to think of myself as smart. And I definitely lean to analyzing things to death, so decisions aren’t exactly made in a vacuum, but the fact remains: I’m wrong a lot. 

This isn’t a bad or unusual thing, it’s actually more the rule rather than the exception for people like me. I’ll explain. 

I’m launching a business, and this is business attempt number two. The first one failed miserably — I’d rather not talk about it. This one is going much better, so far. But I’ve made a lot of assumptions about how things will go, and these have been developed through a lot of mental analysis. The thing about assumptions though is that, despite how they’re developed, much of the time they wind up being wrong — one founder claims that it’s 90% of the time. Your mileage may vary. For me? Probably closer to 95% on a good day.

Assumptions get a bad rap, but they’re a vital part of starting a business. For example, entrepreneurs start off thinking, “This is going to work!”, that’s the most important one. Then we start listing all of our goals and how we’ll achieve them. And, if you’re new to this entrepreneurship thing, most of those are likely to be based on assumptions. 

Some of my assumptions about business number two, Entensa, were that sourcing product would be easy, that hiring talent on Upwork would be cheap and efficient, and that the story would carry the brand. The first two of those have been proven to be categorically wrong. The third? The jury’s still out, but I think it’s correct?

But the danger with assumptions — they aren’t facts. And if we hold onto them long enough and build our plans around them, they start to feel like facts and we stop questioning them. Psychology calls this “Belief Perseverance.” So yes, it’s a thing.

But we, as humans, like to be right; it’s safe, it’s comfortable, and it allows us to confidently move forward. And it’s a completely natural feeling. But if you’re trying to build something bigger than yourself, markets don’t care about our emotional attachment to assumptions. The challenge isn’t avoiding them altogether — businesses never succeed without them — it’s about remaining open to the possibility that they may be wrong. 

My assumptions for this piece of literary gold? Let’s just say my iPhone will be charged and ready for that call from Columbia University for my Pulitzer. 

Keep grinding.

Sources & Further Reading

• Belief Perseverance – The foundational psychological definition and breakdown of why humans hold onto old assumptions even when faced with overwhelming contrary facts. (via Wikipedia)
• The 90% Wrong Rule – A great, thought-provoking read on why embracing being wrong most of the time is a crucial competitive advantage for builders and entrepreneurs. (via Z-Axis)